Source: Firstpost | Title: Presidential polls: Who will forge Opposition unity is the main question
In the current scenario, Opposition unity is a bit of a mirage. As mirrored in the attempts to cobble together a viable presidential candidate. After her dramatic win in the “Khela Hobe” (Game On) campaign in the West Bengal elections, Mamata Banerjee now wants to be the overall skipper.
So that brought her to Delhi to offer a big fight before the presidential polls take place in July. What she forgets, at times, is that most regional leaders resist being ushered into a coalition umbrella with someone else holding the joystick.
In her mind’s eye, she is a giant killer. And now seemingly unstoppable, gaining crucial momentum before the next Lok Sabha polls in 2024. Mamata clearly sees herself as the best Opposition alternative to what the BJP and NDA would offer.
The wily and elusive Sharad Pawar at 81 has seen much more of political life than most among the Opposition ranks. Like a political version of Rahul Dravid, he knows which deliveries to let go. That is his forte. He is the “Bhishmapitamah” (Godfather) of Indian politics; whom someone even like Narendra Modi meets periodically.
There were no surprises when he let the offer of being the consensus candidate of the Opposition in the presidential elections pass by. He knows the Opposition does not have the numbers; with at least two chief ministers: Naveen Patnaik and YS Jaganmohan Reddy holding their cards close like good poker players. And Pawar has no wish to contest just for short-lived visibility and relevance. He does not need the publicity either.
Above all, why fight a battle which you know you cannot win?
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Even earlier, when Mamata was trying to shaft the Congress while rustling a metaphorical Opposition unity, Pawar had counselled that any attempt to do so sans the Congress would be futile. Let us not forget that both Mamata and Pawar were groomed in the Congress stable for many years.
Pawar cleverly worded his refusal. He told an Opposition meet that he “still has an active political innings to play”. Against this backdrop, two spent names have emerged from the dust of the meeting as possible candidates: Former Governor Gopal Gandhi and Farooq Abdullah of the National Conference.
The meeting, which was clouded by the absence of five key parties, saw some disagreement over a three-page statement criticising Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the government, which came up at the last minute.
The parties finally agreed to take four lines for their statement to the media. Mamata said that the Opposition needed to sit together to discuss “the bulldozing taking place in the country”.
Mamata had invited 22 parties but 16 attended the meeting. They decided on a 21 June deadline for naming a presidential candidate versus the nominee of the BJP and its allies.
Still smarting from the thumbs down by Sharad Pawar, Mamata tried to paper over the cracks. She said, “If Sharad Pawar agreed, everybody will give him support. But Pawar ji does not agree, we will discuss.”
The presidential elections will take place on 18 July and the results will be declared on 21 July. The last date for nominations is 29 June.
The Congress played a clever hand by taking part in the meeting and not getting embroiled in some egoistical battle. But leaders like Telangana chief minister K Chandrashekar Rao — who had bonded with his Bengal counterpart over their common goal of defeating the BJP—decided to boycott it. The TRS said there was “no question of sharing any platform with the Congress”.
The Akali Dal and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) also opted out, protesting the Congress’ presence. The AAP said that it would “consider the matter only after the presidential candidate is declared”.
Jagan Reddy’s YSR Congress and Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM were not invited.
Naveen Patnaik’s (Biju Janata Dal) role will be key in the presidential poll, given the numbers. Naveen’s party has 12 members in the Lok Sabha, 9 in the Rajya Sabha and 114 in the 147-member Odisha Assembly. Jagan Reddy’s YSRCP has 22 Lok Sabha seats, nine in the Rajya Sabha and 151 out of 175 in the Andhra Assembly.
In terms of electoral college votes, NDA needs another 13,000 to see its nominee through, which means support from either BJD (31,686 votes) or YSRCP (43,450) will be enough.
No wonder the BJP top brass has been in regular touch with both Patnaik and Jagan Reddy.
The next meeting, hosted by Pawar, will be held on 20 June in New Delhi to finalise the name. In the meantime, Leader of the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha Mallikarjun Kharge, Pawar and Mamata have been allocated the responsibility of speaking to heads of all Opposition parties.
These days Congress, mostly, seems slow on the uptake. Sandwiched between further political erosion and the Gandhi family being beleaguered for its own reasons, leadership has taken a beating. While Congress president Sonia Gandhi was the first off the block to reach out to the Opposition leaders to build a consensus soon after the Election Commission announced the poll dates for the election, it was Mamata who tried to steal a march.
Mamata jabbed at the alleged misuse of Central agencies, citing the Enforcement Directorate’s case against Congress president Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi. She was also critical of the BJP’s Kashmir policy. The Governor’s office, she said, was being brazenly misused to create blockages for the states. Point to remember is Mamata’s nephew, Abhishek Banerjee, is being investigated while she has had numerous tussles with the Governor.
Mallikarjun Kharge of the Congress wanted the Opposition to be proactive and not reactive. He did drop a hint at the end. “Let me close by saying that we must remain united and disciplined and not score political points against each other.”
Unfortunately, Opposition unity remains in the realm of a mirage as the Congress, despite its national-level claims, is now confined to only two states. It is no longer the backbone of any Opposition unity initiative. Yet, Rahul Gandhi made a point saying regional parties would never have the vision or space to fight the enemy in New Delhi.
In this miasma of mistrust, personal ambition, shifting sands of politics and the Lok Sabha elections of 2024 looming large, the Opposition hopes it could consolidate. But the million-dollar question is: Who or what will unite them?
The author is CEO of nnis. Views expressed are personal.
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